In the USA, the Fall season is upon us. The weather has been perfect in my neck of the woods - moderate days and crisp nights which make for great sleeping. The tree foliage is beautiful having just reached peak color. And we were just privileged to witness a full lunar eclipse. What a remarkable event. This season's All Hallows Eve is a special evening for all of the little ghosts and goblins as they move from door-to-door in the neighborhoods and beg for sweet treats. For the first time in many years, Beggars Night will occur prior to the daylight savings time change. That's good because it remains daylight a bit longer and increases the safety factor for the children.

Many years ago, several communities in our area had what was referred to as Pennies Night. That was an additional evening of door-to-door begging for the kids wherein the treats rendered by folks were coins rather than sweets. Pennies Night usually occurred the night before the traditional Beggars Night. As a youngster and a budding coin collector, I looked more forward to the night we received coins than the night the sweet treats were given. The best part was searching through all the coins at the conclusion of the evening. I was able to plug many holes in my coin folders over the years.

And though I have fond memories of the event, sadly, Pennies Night hasn't existed for quite a few decades now. But on the bright side, many folks in our area still give coins to the little beggars rather then sweets on the traditional Beggars Night. In fact, a lot of coin collectors across the country seize the opportunity to place inexpensive collector coins into the treat bags for the kids. Old wheat cents, indian cents buffalo nickels, and world coins abound. My guess is that, over the years, a few of those little beggars have been intrigued by the receipt of those "strange coins". What a great way to help plant the numismatic collecting seeds in our youngsters.

By the time you read this, Halloween Beggars Night will have already passed for this year. But the coin-giving concept is worthy of bearing in mind for next year. If you have a few extra well-worn and inexpensive collector coins, please consider giving them to youngsters on Beggars Night. You may wind up planting a seed that sprouts lifelong enjoyment.

The bullish market for the coin hobby still seems to be running pretty strong. It didn't let up much over our Summer months and, with the Christmas holidays on the horizon, the predictions seem to indicate additional market strengthening. Depending on your perspective, that may be good or it may be bad; or maybe you have mixed emotions. Overall, a bullish market is usually considered good for the hobby. If nothing else, it tends to draw attention and potentially increases interest. As a result, it's usually believed that more collectors enter the hobby and more investors are drawn to the possibilities.

Coin dealers are generally happier because they sell more in a bullish market. But they also get pretty frustrated attempting to locate decent product for their clients. And when they find it, it usually costs them more. Coin collectors are generally happier because their current holdings are increasing in value. But collectors can get frustrated, too, because a bullish market seems to cause increasing difficulty in locating decent coins to add to collections; let alone when coins are located the cost is higher - especially for the key dates.

Where do your emotions lie? Are you generally happy? Or are you frustrated in the midst of your pursuits? In many respects, an ongoing bullish market seems to be a vicious cycle. Dealers can't locate enough decent coins to satisfy customers, so they increase bids in an effort to bring coins out of long term holdings. Sometimes the higher bids successfully free up coins. But those higher bids ultimately translate to higher retail prices for the new owners. Once those freed-up coins are absorbed into the market, bids must increase again to free up more coins. All the while, your current holdings are theoretically increasing in value. But it costs more and more to add coins to your collection.

In many previous bullish markets, the cycle ended when newer collectors completed their sets and/or, when prices got so high, that collectors and investors simply refused to continue market participation. Eventually, with less demand in place, the market began to correct itself and prices lowered and stabilized. That will likely happen in this cycle too. The question is, how long might that take. Many hobby analysts seem to think it won't be soon. They believe there are sufficient new collectors still entering the hobby - buoyed by the likes of new coin designs and new mint products - to sustain the bullish market for several more years.

One concept that seems to support the continuation of a bullish market is the slower rise in prices. Bid and retail prices seem to have increased comparatively slowly and methodically over the last few years. Historically that seems to contribute to underlying market strength and portends less ultimate correction - and hopefully no crash - towards the end of the cycle. Unlike quickly rising markets in the past - such as those centered on the roll and bag craze of the early 1960s, or the insane precious metals prices of the late 1970s, or the liquidity of certified coins in the late 1980s - where the markets crashed in the short aftermath, this bullish market seems to be based primarily on a broad influx of the new collectors. The large, new collector base coupled with the slower rise in values and a broader interest in true collecting as opposed to merely investing, seems to give credence to a continuing bullish market. How long will it last? Many believe it's still in its infancy. Others believe it's nearing its end. But whichever camp you're in, it's hard to argue that it hasn't been interesting.

Don't forget our Christmas Auction. Please plan to participate. Hopefully you'll consider listing a few items. We're looking forward to the prospect of the 2004 Christmas Auction being the biggest and best yet. But that can't happen without your involvement. This year several changes were implemented to allow for better participation. Our Auctioneer has begun accepting lot submissions earlier than usual, the auction will run for two weeks instead of a single week, and he's allowed for up to 15 lots per member rather than the usual 10 lots. So, review your holding to locate those extra or unneeded pieces and please consider listing them over the next couple of weeks. Thanks a lot.

Best Regards,

Ralph J. Huntzinger
WINS President