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GSA MORGAN GRADING CHALLENGE
by JD White, WINS#7

1884cc-obv1
1884cc-rev1
THE CHALLENGE - In January of 2007 the WINS Member Grading Service (WMGS) members were asked to grade an 1884-CC GSA Morgan dollar (from images) before it was submitted to NGC. In June of 2008 the WMGS members were once again asked to grade the same coin (from images) after it had been graded by NGC and returned. This data is presented here to compare how close the two WMGS grading exercises were to NGC's assigned grade.

The images on the left were provided to the WMGS members for both grading exercises. The images on the right were taken using a different light setting and provided here for no particular reason.
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1884cc-rev2

Grade Jan 2007
(22 participants)
Jun 2008
(20 participants)
Unc 1 0
MS60 1 1
MS61 1 2
MS62 5 3
MS63 8 7
MS63PL 0 1
MS64 3 5
MS64PL 1 1
MS65 1 0
MS66 1 0
Compiled from wins-talk List participant submissions

CHALLENGE SUBMISSIONS - During the January 2007 challenge members were requested to send their grade submissions directly to me, but during the June 2008 challenge grade submissions were to be sent to the wins-talk List.

The table at the right presents the range of grades submitted by WMGS members (aka wins-talk List members) during both of the grading challenges, and they are surprisingly similar.

EXERCISE HURDLES - There are always several hurdles to overcome with this type of exercise.  First, it is very difficult to accurately grade any coin from an image, but as an Internet-based club it becomes a moot point; we either use images or we forget these types of exercises.

Secondly, there is a very real chance that exercise results posted to the List in plain view of all participates could skew participant inputs.  Having all responses go directly to the person conducting the exercise can prevent this.

Next, in today's fluid third party grading (TPG) market it's difficult to know if an earlier date technical grade or more current market grade was assigned to any slabbed coin.  Few collectors can identify when a coin was slabbed and unless this is addressed, where is the grade benchmark?

Doug Prather, WINS#294 offers this on market grading:
"The problem is not with the TPG's - the problem is with US, the collectors. We are the ones who make demands that the TPG's do certain things a certain way. When enough of us make those demands they listen and comply in order to keep the business. Yet there is a large, large segment of the collector community that keeps silent, never voicing their opinions and wants to the TPG's. They are also the same segment that rarely uses the TPG's, so those few who do voice their opinions never get listened to by the TPG's."

"If the day ever comes that collectors band together and agree that the TPG's need to do certain things like not slabbing damaged coins, or agree that a nickel needs to (have) 6 full steps, or that all of the TPG's need to follow just ONE set of grading standards - they will listen and change."

"Until then - the squeaky wheel will get the grease."

On top of this, few collectors use the same set of grading standards (if any) and this alone can skew the results beyond belief as well.  Personally, I prefer to technical grade using my old Photograde book.

SUMMARY - While a review of the exercise results doesn't necessarily indicate skewing (because of how the exercise submissions were handled) they do point out an even larger problem.  With a nine point grade range spread in the first exercise and a seven point grade range spread in the second exercise, it calls into question the grading savvy of collectors.  It's a small wonder that so many collectors rely on TPG grading.  Now if all of the TPGs would only use the same set of grading standards, collectors and the hobby as a whole would be much better off.  Basically, it's a crap shoot and will remain so until collectors demand change.

Roy Zukerman, WINS#502, asked the following question:
"How on earth can anyone pay the huge premiums for certain grades when a sophisticated, talented and educated group like this is all over the place with a spread of 4-5 grades on the same coin?"

Doug Prather, WINS#294 responded:
"The first and most obvious (answer) would be that not everyone offering an opinion knows how to grade properly and accurately. The second reason would be that not everyone offering an opinion is using the same set of grading standards. I would even hazard a guess that more than a few are not using a set of grading standards at all."

John Baumgart, WINS#51, also responded:
"... sophisticated, talented, and educated though we may be, people making $200K+/year grading these coins professionally see them all day long every day, and are better at it ..."

Ray Larson, WINS#20, responded:
Add to the grading confusion the fact that most people are better graders in certain series or type of coin than others."

CONCLUSION - To hone their grading skills, collectors should participate in these types grading exercises every chance they get.  We all need to be better at grading and stop relying so much on the grading skills of any TPG.  However, if collectors must reply on TPGs grading they should demand the return to technical grading and stop market grading all together, and start using the same set of grading standards.  Otherwise, this is about as good as it's going to get.




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